It appears the long-awaited sequel to the US-Israeli attack on Iran from 13 – 24 June 2025, also known as the ‘Twelve Day War’, has now finally kicked off.
Massive US troop deployments to the Middle-East have done little to disguise this eventuality, and a second war has started on the morning of the 28th of February.
- US-Israeli goals of this attack are clear: enact regime change.
- US troop deployments suggest a more extensive campaign than the 2025 war, but it is too early to tell.
- The critical factor will be the resilience of the Iranian government.
- In the case of a long war or a war that risks the toppling of the Iranian government, we can expect a closure of the strait of Hormuz and corresponding shocks to global markets.
More extensive geopolitical analysis and my personal views will follow in later posts.
I’ve deliberately kept the OP brief and neutral to avoid unnecessary inflammation from the get-go. This thread is meant to function as a repository for all things pertaining to this war and its wider geopolitical context.