There has been a marked increase in security, war, existential threat, related news stories recently. It seems that every day a new story breaks through on to the front pages. Stories which a few years ago would have been shocking and would have dominated the headlines and discourse for weeks or months. Now they are crowded out within a few hours, or days by another bigger broader story.
Is this evidence of arms race fever?
Is it just media churn going into overdrive?
Is it an amalgamation of threats, risks in different domains coming together to crystallise into existential threats for humanity as a whole, or civilisation as we have become accustomed to?
Just this week there are stories of hackers, ShinyHunters, hacking and stealing the personal details of all the agents of the FBI. Then there are the AI hacks, where rogue AI systems seem to be able to hack into anything.
Then there is threats envisioned around the development of AI
Also it has emerged in speeches at the UN this week that there is an emerging security risk in space. Where satellites may be targeted, that there is a race to dominate this space. The U.K. has announced a new military programme of space security and that the U.S. has had a secret weapon in space for some time.
Just yesterday Trump hosted China’s Xi in Washington where they are having a face off about AI domination. Trump has rejected calls for some kind of international monitoring and regulation of AI development. Xi spoke openly about the threat of the Thucydides Trap, in his speech. Warning the U.S. against escalating trade wars and risking real wars between competing superpowers.
Along side this we have commodities wars and shortages going on as a result of the Ukraine and Iranian wars. Economies and the global economy are reeling at the disruption and turmoil. Europe is racing to re-arm to contain a sabre rattling Russia.
This reminds me of the arms and technology race prior to the First World War in Europe. Where the fever pitch of the rhetoric became deafening.
We can draw various conclusions on current geopolitical matters and I absolutely agree with China, the US has gone into a protectionist overdrive which Trump believes will benefit US interests. This I suppose is the correct stance to adapt if we perceive China to be a real threat.
Israel on the other hand has foolishly misused the backing of the US to start their own wars against the Arab states that it is surrounded by, there might be a turning point in their relationship with the US because of this.
As for Ukraine, the leadership there is fairly good at keeping the Russian enemy at bay even though the war appears to be an unhealthy stalemate, and I hope for the sake of peace that both sides sit on the table and agree to terms of ceasefire or permanent peace which entirely depends on Putin accepting that he made a HUGE mistake starting this war in the first place, but we shall see
Yes, China is definitely a serious competitor and threat when it comes to AI dominance. I think they basically had a face off, with no compromise, or agreements about the issue. The protectionism you refer to is a retreat by the U.S. from her geopolitical alliances which have taken decades to put in place. Replacing them with tariff wars and seeding the role of the world’s leading superpower to China. So really China has now passed the U.S. and is already the new leading superpower.
Isreal is the tail wagging the dog, by convincing the Trump to go to war with Iran. Another demonstration of U.S. weakness. Now we see that U.S. ammunition stocks are depleted and Iran is still holding the the straits of Hormuz to ransom.
Yes, this has been debated on the forum extensively. What I’m thinking of here though is the advances in drone technology being undertaken by Ukraine. There are collaborations with European countries in this endeavour. Indeed there is a development and production facility near me at RAF Mildenhall in England. With evidence of Russian drone activity in the area. This development is changing the face of warfare with advanced drones cheaply produced in large numbers able to overwhelm traditional forces. And penetrate deep into enemy territory.
In the OP I was thinking more of advances in AI becoming an arms race and the fears about where this will lead and what the future threats will be.