I was too quick.
There are three potential outcomes for a Turing machine. It might halt. It might loop. It might do neither.
Here’s an example of each:
- Halt: A machine that stops at the first step.
- Loop: A machine that moves to the right in the first step and to the left in the second.
- Neither: A machine that moves to the right at each step.
Note that in each of these cases we know which will occur. For these, there is no mystery. We know what will happen. We can classify these Turing machines. So we can “decide” for some Turing machines. There are decidable sub-classes of Turing Machines.
Notice that the outcome is “determined” by the code given the Turing machine. The outcome (halt / loop / neither) is a fact fixed by the machine’s transition table and input. Given a specific machine M and input w, there is exactly one truth about what that machine does on w — it’s not contingent or probabilistic. The computation trajectory is a mechanical unfolding of the rules; nothing indeterminate happens at any step.
Notice also the asymmetry between halting and continuing. That a machine halts is semi-decidable by simply running the machine. That a machine does not halt is not decidable by running the machine. Halting is semi-decidable by running the machine - once it stops, you know it halts, but if it hasn’t at step n, you can’t decide it never will.
The central issue, the one that is ambiguous in the OP, is the difference between what we might properly call determinacy and decidability. Turing machines are determinate. They are not all decidable. But some are.
In our standard use of Belief and Truth, something can be true and yet not believed, or believed and not true. A Turing machine halts or continues. If it halts, we are justified in believing that it halts. If it continues, at some step n we have no justification from the machine for either believing that it will halt or believing that it will continue. But we can nevertheless sometimes have justification, as in the case of the “move to the right” machine. The justification in that case isn’t coming from the machine’s run — it’s coming from an external proof about the machine’s structure, which is invariant: the position strictly increases, the state never revisits a halting configuration. So there are really three epistemic sources in play, not two. We can decide by reasoning about the transition table from outside the execution; or by running the machine and having it halt; or the third option, that no decision is available for a machine that has not yet halted. But it remains determinate that the machine will either halt, or it will not.
- Metaphysically: every (M, w) pair determinately halts or doesn’t. No exceptions, no vagueness, no third option.
- Epistemically: our access to which disjunct obtains is asymmetrical; guaranteed eventually on one side, not on the other.
The claim of the OP, that the Turing example has direct metaphysical implications, is too strong. The implications are an addition to the example. Turing machines supply a clean, rigorous instance of determinacy without guaranteed decidability.
If a machine halts, we can in principle verify this by running the machine. If a machine loops, we can verify this from outside the machine, by noting that it has returned to a previous configuration and so will repeat its actions indefinitely. If a machine neither halts nor loops, we might be able to verify this from outside the machine, as with the ‘move right forever’ case. But that this is not always possible is exactly the content of Turing’s result: there is no general method guaranteed to verify non-halting for every machine that hasn’t halted at n.